How much depreciation are lease deals showing?

[ColdCase]

Ok, what is going to happen if in 3 years, the lease needs $50K to buy it out but you can buy other, similar cars (same spec/milage) for $40K. You can give it back but then they are stuck with it or offer less than the contract amount?? That ever happen? Otherwise, what are they going to do with it?

Thats the risk the leasing company takes. The car belongs to Porsche, not the dealer. Porsche will likely auction it. You may be able to buy it at the auction or have a dealer buy it for you.

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[Petzi]

i traded my 7 year old macan turbo with 150.000 km for 35.000.- when i bought the turbo ev.
i think that the opinions about the depreciation of fully specked turbos are wrong. there are less of them available and i would rather buy such a 4 year old car with full warranty for 70.000.- than a lean base or 4. for 50.000,- if you look at the used taycan prices you can see this. plus i do not see that massive depreciation for taycans in the european market. the conclusion is to buy the car. it can be always traded when buying the next porsche. just my opinion.

 

[FutureMacanOwner]

Thats the risk the leasing company takes. The car belongs to Porsche, not the dealer. Porsche will likely auction it. You may be able to buy it at the auction or have a dealer buy it for you.

If I can buy a 3-year old CPO electric Macan for $40k next summer then sign me up! (esp. if it's above the base trim and has the premium package) ?

 

[tmrqs]

If I can buy a 3-year old CPO electric Macan for $40k next summer then sign me up! (esp. if it's above the base trim and has the premium package) ?

Seeing as by Summer 2026, the oldest Macan Electric potentially purchasable will be 2 years old, I wouldn’t hold my breath on a 3-year CPO. ?

 

[FutureMacanOwner]

Seeing as by Summer 2026, the oldest Macan Electric potentially purchasable will be 2 years old, I wouldn’t hold my breath on a 3-year CPO. ?

Yeah, not holding my breath on that, haha. I guess I was thinking more like "3 model years" on the market and not "3 years old"

 

[seabird]

My dealer advises otherwise but I think we're talking slightly different things.

ICE comparisons aren't ideal either.

Sharks like Carwow (that guy really gets my goat) aren't official franchises so again not a good comparison in this case.

So in your view...actual data from lease residuals, gas engine cars, and used car price listings are all wrong but some unnamed person at a random unnamed dealer with uncited sources is trustworthy. That's bananas.

This conversation was about the claim that the lease residuals dropping with higher trims is "backwards". That's just objectively false. The residuals on higher trims are lower because depreciation of higher trims is higher.

Every financial model in existence has the MSRP gap collapsing as the cars age. Mathematically, that means that pricier configurations all lose more money more quickly. This is really easy to see play out anywhere. If you don't like Carwow, choose a different listing site. If you don't want to use the ICE Macan as a reference, pick another car. You'll always see the same thing: every dollar or pound you spend in upgrades, whatever those may be, disappears faster than the base car's value. It's well-studied and well-understood.

I get that you're now making a different claim that some specific options are more desirable than others (like a car with $10K in carbon fiber and custom paint vs. spending the $10K moving from 4 cylinders to 6), which is true, but not relevant because (1) the window of time that individual options retain any observable value is very brief and (2) people rarely load up base models with random crap. Neither of those $10K upgrades is holding value to justify the initial spend. It'd look something like this:

$50K + nothing. After 5 years: $27K. Loss: $23K/46%.
$50K + $10K appearance options. After 5 years: $28K. Loss: $32K/53%.
$50K + $10K engine. After 5 years: $30K. Loss: $30K/50%.

From a financial standpoint, the best bet is always the base model with few to no options. But thankfully we don't buy cars, especially Porsches, out of financial prudence alone.

 

[FutureMacanOwner]

$50K + nothing. After 5 years: $27K. Loss: $23K/46%.
$50K + $10K appearance options. After 5 years: $28K. Loss: $32K/53%.
$50K + $10K engine. After 5 years: $30K. Loss: $30K/50%.

So what I'm seeing here is that I can get a really great specked out used electric Macan for a few grand more than a base model with no features if I'm patient due to value compression over time? I like the sound of that deal!

 

[Petzi]

So what I'm seeing here is that I can get a really great specked out used electric Macan for a few grand more than a base model with no features if I'm patient due to value compression over time? I like the sound of that deal!

we all know this is not the reality.

 

[FutureMacanOwner]

we all know this is not the reality.

If there's one thing I've learned over my many years leasing and buying cars, it's that we all get different deals — even for the exact same car. It depends on market conditions, dealer desperation, and our ability to negotiate (or not).

So, while some folks may be able to get a great deal on that high speck used car, others might pay a lot more for the same vehicle with comparable miles.

I guess time will tell which side of that fence I'm on...

 

[seabird]

So what I'm seeing here is that I can get a really great specked out used electric Macan for a few grand more than a base model with no features if I'm patient due to value compression over time? I like the sound of that deal!

...yes. That's how used cars work. A 2015 Turbo with $10K in options is worth $25K today ($83K new). A 2015 S with the same $10K in options is $21K ($61K new). A 2015 S with NO options is worth $19K ($51K new).

The S without options is worth 37% of its original MSRP ($32K depreciation). The S with options is worth 34% of its original MSRP ($40K depreciation). The Turbo is only worth 30% of its original MSRP, (a whopping $58K depreciation).

we all know this is not the reality.

It is 100% the reality. I don't know where the confusion is coming from. This is super easy to verify in car listings.

 

[Petzi]

...yes. That's how used cars work. A 2015 Turbo with $10K in options is worth $25K today ($83K new). A 2015 S with the same $10K in options is $21K ($61K new). A 2015 S with NO options is worth $19K ($51K new).

The S without options is worth 37% of its original MSRP ($32K depreciation). The S with options is worth 34% of its original MSRP ($40K depreciation). The Turbo is only worth 30% of its original MSRP, (a whopping $58K depreciation).

It is 100% the reality. I don't know where the confusion is coming from. This is super easy to verify in car listings.

things to be “100%” seems to be something very important for some…

the examples you quote have nothing to do with this thread. nothing to do with ev’s. but if you think that 3-4 10 year old cars prove anything….

 

[seabird]

the examples you quote have nothing to do with this thread. nothing to do with ev’s. but if you think that 3-4 10 year old cars prove anything….

You are welcome to show, with data, that there is anything special about EVs, Macans, or EV Macans that would cause them to depreciate in the opposite manner of every other mass market car.

Porsche finance residuals are perfectly in line with the used car market in general, with higher trims having lower lease end residual values. Actual market projections, in line with every other car, are consistent with this. Used gas Macans. Used Taycans. Used BMWs. Used Toyotas. It's all the same.

The people here, including you, who seem to be insisting that high-spec cars hold value better haven't been able to show a single instance of that and pretend that "3-4" cars don't prove anything when millions of data points disagree with you.

 

[Petzi]

You are welcome to show, with data, that there is anything special about EVs, Macans, or EV Macans that would cause them to depreciate in the opposite manner of every other mass market car.

Porsche finance residuals are perfectly in line with the used car market in general, with higher trims having lower lease end residual values. Actual market projections, in line with every other car, are consistent with this. Used gas Macans. Used Taycans. Used BMWs. Used Toyotas. It's all the same.

The people here, including you, who seem to be insisting that high-spec cars hold value better haven't been able to show a single instance of that and pretend that "3-4" cars don't prove anything when millions of data points disagree with you.

i surrender to the ”millions of data points”

 

[seabird]

i surrender to the ”millions of data points”

Obviously. Pretending the Macan is magically going to depreciate differently than every other EV, SUV, and/or luxury car on the market is tough business when 25 years of sales data is freely available online showing a uniform trend.

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