How much depreciation are lease deals showing?

[W1NGE]

Interesting.
Except one person out of those folks. When I was getting base Macan, I remember @W1NGE was arguing Turbo will suffer the least depreciation, and base RWD the worst. But it seems the opposite to what he thought. Here, RWD and Macan 4 are almost same.
Anyway, people are not buying these Macans based upon depreciation, as that's not the prime reason. Its what they like to have, as all are great trims.

US market is not the same as UK.

Time will tell.

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[FutureMacanOwner]

US market is not the same as UK.

Time will tell.

That's true. We do have different standard features on the cars here in the U.S. — like the panoramic sunroof and air suspension for example. And the U.S. is a very different consumer base too. Heck, even state to state we have totally different views on EVs here.

Time will indeed tell.

 

[dgkhn]

Well obviously no one currently knows actual 2 and 3 year depreciation, because we will only know that when used Macan EV's start selling at that age. The only "hard" numbers that people have access to seem to be what PFS lease residual values are. From what I've seen, in general, the two lower models have a 2% higher residual value on the leases than do the more expensive models.

I wouldn't read much into those residual values as predictors of depreciation though. There may be any number of factors in addition to projected depreciation that PFS is using to set those numbers. I am not sure they have any better insight into how close to reality those numbers might be than we do, and even if they did, it's a stretch to assume that those numbers are a direct reflection of their projections.

 

[FLHusky]

I gave them $10K. I give them $1.5K each month. They give me the most amazing car I have ever driven. There you go and as the Brits say: “Bob’s your uncle!”

 

[BruceS2]

Ok, what is going to happen if in 3 years, the lease needs $50K to buy it out but you can buy other, similar cars (same spec/milage) for $40K. You can give it back but then they are stuck with it or offer less than the contract amount?? That ever happen? Otherwise, what are they going to do with it?

 

[cottony]

Ok, what is going to happen if in 3 years, the lease needs $50K to buy it out but you can buy other, similar cars (same spec/milage) for $40K. You can give it back but then they are stuck with it or offer less than the contract amount?? That ever happen? Otherwise, what are they going to do with it?

That is when their sales will tell you how dumb it is to buy out the lease and oh look at these new shiny cars that just arrived, let’s get you into another 3 yr lease ?

 

[OHWHATDA]

I just leased a Macan 4S (but I plan to buy it out in three months). MSRP was about $99K, residual was 62% after 2 years/10K miles, so residual value is $61K after 2 years. But as someone else said, residual is based off MSRP and not adjusted capital cost. I worked with a broker and got a great deal with 12% off MSRP plus the $7,500 federal rebate pass through, for an adjusted capital cost of $79,550.

So in terms of actual depreciation, I’m looking at 23% over two years, from the adjusted capital cost to the residual value. Not too bad as long as you can get the federal rebate and a solid deal.

 

[FutureMacanOwner]

I just leased a Macan 4S (but I plan to buy it out in three months). MSRP was about $99K, residual was 62% after 2 years/10K miles!

Thanks! Now I have estimates for 2-year and 3-year depreciation which gives me more data points to plot on a graph. Much appreciated!

 

[seabird]

Interesting.
Except one person out of those folks. When I was getting base Macan, I remember @W1NGE was arguing Turbo will suffer the least depreciation, and base RWD the worst. But it seems the opposite to what he thought.

This is 100% normal. High end trims lose value faster because options are always worth less on the resale market than what they cost at factory order.

Think about it. When you're shopping for a 3-year old car, you're not going to see the same $60K spread between a base model and fully-loaded top trim model. You're not even going to get half of that back. If you're very lucky, when the base car drops to 50% of its value, you might get 25% of your upgrades back.

Those MSRP differences are going to compress over time, eventually dropping to the point where that $50-60K in options is down to basically nothing while the car itself is still worth $10-15K.

US market is not the same as UK.

In this respect, there's no difference. Depreciation is always higher in higher trims for any mass-produced car. The exceptions are special editions or particular configurations that become desirable collector cars, neither of which any Macan has in store for its future.

The Macan GTS/Turbo gas models in the UK lose value fastest just like everywhere else in the world. So will the EVs.

 

[W1NGE]

This is 100% normal. High end trims lose value faster because options are always worth less on the resale market than what they cost at factory order.

Think about it. When you're shopping for a 3-year old car, you're not going to see the same $60K spread between a base model and fully-loaded top trim model. You're not even going to get half of that back. If you're very lucky, when the base car drops to 50% of its value, you might get 25% of your upgrades back.

Those MSRP differences are going to compress over time, eventually dropping to the point where that $50-60K in options is down to basically nothing while the car itself is still worth $10-15K.

In this respect, there's no difference. Depreciation is always higher in higher trims for any mass-produced car. The exceptions are special editions or particular configurations that become desirable collector cars, neither of which any Macan has in store for its future.

The Macan GTS/Turbo gas models in the UK lose value fastest just like everywhere else in the world. So will the EVs.

The opposite is true in my experience. A base model with lots of options will lose more. A £50K vehicle (say) with £30K of options is still valued at the base model cost and a token gesture for some worthy options.

Logically, the higher trim model where these options are standard will lose less.

In any event we can't rely on finance residuals as an accurate metric as these are not indicative of future market prices and particularly on EVs.

VW finance (and others) have lost considerable sums on EV lease deals (UK) after assuming the 2nd hand EV market would be strong.

The market remains volatile and a few percentage points either way is not material when compared to the overall loss made.

Smart move is to buy the base model and add zero options...but then no one does that on a Porsche.

 

[jsclarke]

For a 4S leased in Southern California in February, 2025- residual = 56%, 39 months, 10k miles/year, MF= 0.0035 (8.4%) via Porsche Financial

 

[FutureMacanOwner]

MSRP differences are going to compress over time

That's a good point. I never really thought about depreciation of "options" separately from depreciation of "vehicle." I suspect some options are much more market-friendly and retain their value better than others that may be more "personal preference."

I imagine "quality of life" options (heated/cooled 14 way seats, heated steering, adaptive cruise, etc) hold their value better than luxury options like custom colors, Burmeister, Matrix LEDs, etc.

 

[W1NGE]

"Value retaining" options comprise a small list - wheels, leather, metallic paint, Bose (or Bur), pano roof and then open season. I would have listed battery too but all Macan EVs have the same size battery. Many cars depending on the market will come with packs which have the usual goodies as "standard" but make no mistake the value of options is significantly marked down.

 

[seabird]

The opposite is true in my experience. A base model with lots of options will lose more. A £50K vehicle (say) with £30K of options is still valued at the base model cost and a token gesture for some worthy options.

It absolutely isn't. Higher trims are just packaged options. Whether you're spending 30K on options or trim packages, you're not getting that money back. Investing more in the car upfront isn't going to result in a better return on the used market. Spending £30K more on a GTS isn't going to get you a slower rate of depreciation than the base model

Just look at listings. A 2022 Macan S started at a minimum of £12K more than a base model before a la carte options. Today, it's only worth £2K more. That means it has lost value faster, not slower, and lost £10K more in total value than the base model.

2021 Macans on CarWow show a total spread of £20K, from 42K for a base with 44,000 miles to 62K for a Turbo with 11,000 miles. The MSRP difference between those cars with options was over £40K. That means the Turbo lost at least £20K more than the base model, like for like, day for day, mile for mile.

Logically, the higher trim model where these options are standard will lose less.

No. Anything above the base MSRP loses money faster than the car itself. Nothing you add on, whether individual options, packages, or trims, will result in losing less value than a base model.

In any event we can't rely on finance residuals as an accurate metric as these are not indicative of future market prices and particularly on EVs.

The actual percentages are boosted by incentives. The relationship of which ones lose value fastest is well-proven. The leasing industry doesn't actually lose money. It's a huge profit driver.

And you can simply look at used listings to validate this.

 

[W1NGE]

It absolutely isn't. Higher trims are just packaged options. Whether you're spending 30K on options or trim packages, you're not getting that money back. Investing more in the car upfront isn't going to result in a better return on the used market. Spending £30K more on a GTS isn't going to get you a slower rate of depreciation than the base model

Just look at listings. A 2022 Macan S started at a minimum of £12K more than a base model before a la carte options. Today, it's only worth £2K more. That means it has lost value faster, not slower, and lost £10K more in total value than the base model.

2021 Macans on CarWow show a total spread of £20K, from 42K for a base with 44,000 miles to 62K for a Turbo with 11,000 miles. The MSRP difference between those cars with options was over £40K. That means the Turbo lost at least £20K more than the base model, like for like, day for day, mile for mile.

No. Anything above the base MSRP loses money faster than the car itself. Nothing you add on, whether individual options, packages, or trims, will result in losing less value than a base model.

The actual percentages are boosted by incentives. The relationship of which ones lose value fastest is well-proven. The leasing industry doesn't actually lose money. It's a huge profit driver.

And you can simply look at used listings to validate this.

My dealer advises otherwise but I think we're talking slightly different things.

ICE comparisons aren't ideal either.

Sharks like Carwow (that guy really gets my goat) aren't official franchises so again not a good comparison in this case.

Taycan values fell off a cliff and no one saw that coming leaving leasing companies licking their wounds dealing with negative equity. Porsche finance rates have risen when OBR has fallen.

I have a Macan T which apparently is the best depreciating variant - I hope that holds true when looking to migrate to a Macan EV.

We.can agree that costly options don't help depreciation - that was my point with loading a base model over a model higher in the range without adding the options to make it similar.

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